With Messi and Ronaldo out of the picture, there’s much more uncertainty over who will take home the award each year.
Every year, there is increasing scrutiny and controversy over the Ballon d’Or. Just last year, Cristiano Ronaldo claimed the award was losing credibility while speaking to Portuguese newspaper Record. Months later, Real Madrid would raise similar complaints after Brazilian star Vinicius Jr. lost the award, which instead went to Manchester City midfielder Rodri. Internazionale striker Lautaro Martínez told DAZN that the awards were sometimes unfair after he finished seventh.
This is hardly a new phenomenon. Bayern Munich legend Franck Ribéry has commented on more than one occasion about not winning the trophy in 2013, as has former teammate Robert Lewandowski, who was denied in both 2020 (when it was canceled due to the COVID pandemic) and 2021. The fact that Arsenal legend Thierry Henry never won is widely considered scandalous. Three-time Ballon d’Or winner Johan Cruyff has frequently criticized the same award. The list goes on.
For all the criticism the Ballon d’Or gets, one thing remains true: it is still the most prized award in soccer, and by some margin. Other awards are frequently introduced — like FIFA’s The Best Award — but the Ballon d’Or remains the most prestigious. It’s how players show their greatness, and how many fans — fair, or unfair — measure it.
With the Ballon d’Or now measuring performances over a season — and not a calendar year, as was previously the case — the race for it is heating up. While there is still a lot to be decided over the final few months, here are the favorites and who you should keep an eye on.
Raphinha, FC Barcelona
Imagine saying this a few years back. Or even last year.
Hansi Flick’s Barcelona are firing on all cylinders this season, and are still in contention for a treble that few would have thought possible before the season. The Blaugrana sit first in La Liga — level on points with rivals Real Madrid, with a game in hand — while they face an important stretch of games with the Copa del Rey semifinals against Atlético Madrid and the Champions League quarter-finals against Borussia Dortmund coming up.
The main man for this success story is Raphinha. The Brazilian winger joined three years ago from Leeds United for a reported €58 million, and in his first two seasons, he was alright. Not terrible, but not quite what Barcelona fans were hoping for. The emergence of young star Lamine Yamal further diminished his minutes and his role at the club, and he was strongly linked with a transfer in the summer window.
Fast forward to this season. Under Hansi Flick, Raphinha has rarely played on the right, where he spent most of his career, but instead on the left and occasionally centrally. And he’s been effective, to say the least. The Barcelona star currently has 47 goal contributions in all competitions, with highlights including (but not limited to) a hat-trick against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and two strong performances in thrashings of Real.
Verdict: Favorite, if he collects at least one of the three trophies up for grabs. There’s another Barcelona player who might take some of his votes, though…
Lamine Yamal, FC Barcelona
What is there even to say about Lamine Yamal?
This is a player who won the Euros the day after he turned 17, having already scored or assisted in all but two games. A player who scored right in front of Adrien Rabiot, who had called out the Spanish star before the game. A player who debuted for Barcelona’s first team at 15. A player who became not only the youngest player to score for Barcelona, but also in La Liga. And none of that even includes this season.
Like Raphinha, Yamal has benefited immensely from Hansi Flick’s exciting style of play. Despite being only 17, he’s scored thirteen goals and assisted seventeen in all competitions. He nearly single-handedly took Barcelona past Benfica with an incredible performance in the second leg. He’s simply been dominant at a level we’ve never seen for a player this age in the modern game.
Verdict: Barring an incredible late season stretch from Yamal, he won’t win. But he will in the future.
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool
You have to feel for Mohamed Salah.
For the past few months, the Egyptian star was the runaway favorite for the Ballon d’Or. Liverpool looked unbeatable. Salah was unstoppable, barring one blemish against an unexpectedly good Nottingham Forest side. Things were going great, but that’s changed.
The Premier League remains a cakewalk for Salah and Liverpool. The Reds are twelve points clear at the top of the table, with no losses prior to or since the aforementioned Nottingham Forest game, which was in September. Salah has at least one goal contribution in each of his last eight league games with Liverpool, and a whopping 44 total — 27 goals and 17 assists.
However, outside of the league, that hasn’t been the case. Within the span of a week, Liverpool was dumped out of both the Champions League and Carabao Cup. Paris Saint-Germain proved to be too much in the Champions League, with the Ligue 1 side winning on penalties at Anfield. Days later, Alexander Isak and Dan Burn scored as Newcastle United upset Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final. Salah was kept unusually quiet against both PSG and Newcastle.
With Liverpool already out of the FA Cup, the best the club — and Salah — can do is the Premier League title. A great accomplishment, but is it enough for the Ballon d’Or?
Verdict: Incredible year. Incredible player. But he needs to keep up his blistering form in the league to even have a chance.
Ousmane Dembélé, Paris Saint-Germain
Throughout his time in Spain, Dembélé was called a flop, or even — somewhat harshly — a failed wonderkid.
The French winger was capable, and, in his last season with Barcelona, even quite good. But he failed to reach the heights many expected, certainly not considering the astronomical fee the club paid — reported to be as much as €148 million. Between injuries and the club’s overall struggles, Dembélé just didn’t achieve quite as much as he should have with the Catalan club. By the time he found his form, Dembélé was off to PSG.
In Paris, Dembélé has turned things around, although made further enemies in Barcelona after his performance — and clear display of schadenfreude — against his former club in the Champions League last year. This year, he’s found a new level. Manager Luis Enrique, also ex-Barca, has played the Frenchman both on the right wing and, more recently, centrally. It’s as a false nine where he’s turned into the elite goalscorer PSG lacked in a post-Mbappé world.
Dembélé currently leads Ligue 1 in goals, with 21, and has a further nine in all competitions, with six assists. Thanks to the French forward, PSG are currently undefeated in Ligue 1 after 26 games, making the title race good as over. With Dunkerque in the Coupe de France semi-finals, and Aston Villa in the Champions League quarter-finals, it’s very possible that PSG could secure a treble. That would do wonders for Dembélé’s chance of winning the Ballon d’Or.
Verdict: Not currently the favorite. Check back in a month. Regardless, an incredible turnaround for his career.
Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid
After an underwhelming start, Mbappé has found his form in Madrid and has an outside chance for his first-ever Ballon d’Or.
After completing his long-awaited move to Madrid, Mbappé didn’t exactly hit the ground running. He scored in his first game for Los Blancos in a 2-0 win over Atalanta, but despite this, the Madrid attack didn’t really gel. With Madrid arguably possessing three natural left-wingers in their starting eleven — Mbappé, Vinicius Jr., and Rodrygo — there was a seeming lack of understanding between the forwards.
It all culminated in the 4-0 Clásico loss to Barcelona, where Mbappé set an unwanted record — the French striker was caught offside a whopping eight times by Flick’s high line, the joint-most in La Liga history. Madrid was in a tough spot in the Champions League, as well, losing three of their opening five games.
That all changed in the second half of the season. Mbappé has scored 17 times since the beginning of January, already three more than in the first half of the year. His performance in the Champions League knock-outs against Manchester City were particularly impressive, with his second leg hat-trick giving Madrid the win and humiliating Joško Gvardiol at a level we haven’t seen since Messi sent Jerome Boateng to the floor in 2015.
Verdict: With other stars — cough, Vini, cough — underperforming, Mbappé has stepped up at the right time. He needs to win the Champions League to be seriously considered, though.
Bonus: Harry Kane, Bayern Munich
Yes, I was recently critical about Harry Kane’s time in Munich. And I stand by what I wrote.
But that was before Kane had arguably the most important two-game stretch over his career, shining against Bayer Leverkusen with three goals and an assist as Bayern finally got the better of Xabi Alonso’s men. That was his first real big-game performance for Bayern, and it came at the perfect time for both the club and Kane.
It’s hard to see a Bayern Munich player lifting this award. They’re almost too good as a collective, which leads to them getting overlooked. Dayot Upamecano has silently been one of the best defenders in the world, Joshua Kimmich has been immense in midfield, while Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala have been nightmares for defenders. It’s thanks to all of them that Bayern leads the Bundesliga once more and still have a chance to win the Champions League.
If Bayern win the Bundesliga and progress further in the Champions League, though, Harry Kane would surely be the representative at the Ballon d’Or ceremony. Not just for the trophies he won and the goal contributions he recorded — 43, at the time of writing — but for snapping his own unlucky streak of avoiding trophies. Doing that could win him the most important individual one of all.
Verdict: Probably won’t win, but if he repeats his recent UCL knockout performances, who knows?
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Image is from fcbarcelona.com.
