We are only eight games into the Bundesliga season, but Bayern Munich are already starting to pull away at the top of the table.
For all of five minutes, 1. FC Köln fans were dreaming of an upset.
Bayern had been eliminated in the second round of the DFB Pokal in three of the tournament’s previous four editions, including some humbling losses to the likes of 1. FC Saarbrücken and a 5-0 thrashing to Borussia Mönchengladbach. So, why not Köln?
Effzeh took the lead in the 31st minute when forward Ragnar Ache headed past former Köln goalkeeper Jonas Urbig. The dream was very much alive. Five minutes later, Luis Díaz scored to make it 1-1. Harry Kane added a second three minutes after that, and Bayern ran away with an easy 4-1 victory.
That’s been a bit of a theme. The Bavarians, led by Vincent Kompany, have won a record 14 consecutive games to start the season. Not gone unbeaten — won. They have yet to drop a single point in any competition. Only four teams have held Bayern to a one-goal margin of victory.
Bayern already have a five-point cushion at the top of the league, and a goal differential of +26. They are looking unbeatable. That should be the league wrapped up already, then.
However, Bayern have shown some weaknesses, and will undoubtedly prioritize the Champions League. So can another team potentially sneak in and make this competitive — or even take the league altogether?
2nd. RB Leipzig — 19 Points, +7 GD
Why They Could: Let’s just ignore the season opener for a minute.
Since their first Bundesliga game of the season, Leipzig have gone undefeated. Their much-changed attack is starting to gel, with the likes of Rômulo and Yan Diomande already making headlines. Since that first game, the defense has been strong and hasn’t conceded multiple goals in a game.
Leipzig were just the second team to take points off Dortmund this season, and have gotten some big wins off the bat — like a 6-0 win over FC Augsburg. And, because they failed to qualify for Europe last season, they don’t have to deal with fixture congestion and can fully focus on the league.
Why They Won’t: Ok, back to that first game.
Despite some big wins, Leipzig’s goal differential isn’t that good. That’s because in the first game of the season, Die RasenBallsport — sorry, Die Roten Bullen — got absolutely pummeled by Vincent Kompany’s Bayern. Starting the year with a 6-0 loss isn’t exactly ideal.
Beyond that game, their only other real test has been Borussia Dortmund. They could have — and perhaps should have — beaten Dortmund, but the fact that they couldn’t take their chances is concerning in itself. Dortmund nearly snatched all three points at the death, too.
The rest of the schedule has been relatively easy. Leipzig have played and beaten newly-promoted Köln and Hamburg SV, three relegation candidates in 1. FC Heidenheim, 1. FSV Mainz, & Augsburg, and an unimpressive VfL Wolfsburg. All of those are games they should be winning.
You can only beat who’s put in front of you, but at this stage, it’s simply not enough.
Verdict: Ole Werner may have this team looking solid again. They’ve bounced back nicely from a poor start to the season and some big sales (who saw those coming?), but it’s hard to look past that ugly Bayern loss and a soft schedule.
Best-case scenario is a second-place finish, but the goal should be simply Champions League qualification.
3rd. VfB Stuttgart — 18 Points, +6 GD
Why They Could: Outside of Bayern, Stuttgart probably have the best squad in Germany, despite losing Nick Woltemade and Enzo Millot.
Chema Andrés has emerged as a genuine star in a stacked midfield that already had two top players in Angelo Stiller and Atakan Karazor. Bilal El Khannouss adds a new threat in an attack that already looked pretty lethal. The defense is, when healthy, very solid.
Stuttgart came quite close to beating Bayern in the Super Cup. Since returning to the Bundesliga in 2020, Die Schwaben have managed to establish themselves as a top Bundesliga team once again. They have finished above Bayern in the (recent) past and could well do it again at some point.
Why They Won’t: Like last season, Stuttgart have had some pretty bad injury luck.
Ermedin Demirović finally looked ready for a breakout season after disappointing last year, but now he will be sidelined for the time being due to a foot injury. Deniz Undav is only just coming back from a major knee injury and has struggled with fitness since joining. Like last season, the defense has also been ravaged by injuries.
With Stuttgart also competing in the Europa League, the squad will be stretched thin at times. It doesn’t help that they have already required minor miracles to beat the likes of Eintracht Braunschweig in the Pokal and pick up some points in Europe.
Verdict: Long-term, they could establish themselves alongside Dortmund as Bayern’s real competitors. Winning this year is going to be too much to ask. Again, Champions League qualification should be the goal.
4th. Borussia Dortmund — 17 Points, +8 GD
Why They Could: Dortmund look really, really good under Niko Kovač. Who would’ve guessed?
No, really. How does Kovač defy the odds with Eintracht Frankfurt, then look incredibly out of his depth with Bayern Munich, AS Monaco, & Wolfsburg, and then become great again with Dortmund? It makes no sense.
But that’s what has happened. Since March of last year, Kovač has lost only three games as Dortmund manager. Those three losses? Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich.
A back-three isn’t what you’d necessarily associate with the Bundesliga, but it’s working quite well for Dortmund. The attack, led by ace striker Serhou Guirassy, has proved to be lethal at times, while Nico Schlotterbeck and Gregor Kobel ensure that BVB remain strong in defense. Even Felix Nmecha looks like a changed man in midfield.
Dortmund look like a threat, even in Europe. They’ve had some weak moments, sure, and were overly cautious in Der Klassiker, but this is a good team, make no mistake. It also helps that they are picking up the sort of late ugly wins that Leverkusen did two years before.
Why They Won’t: There are a couple of good reasons why Dortmund can’t/won’t win the Bundesliga.
Depth, for one. I mean, Dortmund are one injury away from Niklas Süle becoming very important. That’s never good. And, while the starting lineup is quite good, they are lacking in depth in almost every key position. With the Pokal and Champions League, that will be an issue at some point.
There’s also that always-impending drama. Jobe Bellingham has reportedly caused problems with his unhappiness about his lack of minutes. Nico Schlotterbeck’s contract saga has hardly come at an ideal time. Six players are set to leave for free next summer.
But the most important reason is that it’s Dortmund. No other club in the world loves self-sabotaging more. Being on the brink of victory, but going home with a draw or loss instead.
Dortmund allowed St. Pauli to score in the 86th and 89th minutes to blow a 3-1 lead and draw on the opening day. Dortmund blew three separate leads and conceded twice after the 94th minute to draw Juventus 4-4 in the Champions League. They easily could’ve come away with at least a point vs Bayern, but didn’t.
Dortmund are a good team. Until they stop making these mistakes and turning off at these crucial moments, they won’t be a great team.
Verdict: With luck and an early Champions League exit, Dortmund could win the league. Still, they’d do well to at least make it a competitive race — and a deep run in Europe is not out of the question.
5th. Bayer Leverkusen — 17 Points, +7 GD
Why They Could: The Ten Hag era, if there was one, is over. Kasper Hjulmand is now in charge, and Leverkusen look much, much better with the Dane in charge.
Leverkusen have lost just one of Hjulmand’s ten games — more on that in a minute — and have come away with respectable results against the likes of PSV Eindhoven and SC Freiburg.
The offense is still firing, with 23 goals in that span. Tactically, Hjulmand is a much better fit than Ten Hag — as well as culturally and literally every other way imaginable.
Alejandro Grimaldo is easily one of the best full-backs/wing-backs in the world and is practically single-handedly keeping this team relevant. When healthy (spoiler: it isn’t), the midfield has a case to be one of the best in Europe, especially with the reemergence of Aleix García.
Why They Won’t: Literally everything else.
The transfer strategy is baffling. Having won the league with an experienced side, Leverkusen let seemingly all of their experienced players walk, including captain Granit Xhaka. In their place, they have gone for the wonderkid route (AKA operation Chelsea), looking to bring in future stars. That’s not exactly gone well.
(Side note — what language do they speak in the locker room? There are four Germans in that team. They have as many Argentines and Frenchmen, and 14 different nationalities represented in total. The current manager is Danish, and the first one was Dutch.)
Injuries have been a major problem, exposing questionable depth. Most notably, defensive midfielder Robert Andrich was forced to play center-back against PSG in the Champions League. He was sent off, and the Ligue 1 scored seven past a miserable Leverkusen side. Die Werkself looked helpless and well-defeated even before the final whistle.
Which brings up the most important part — the defense is terrible. Mark Flekken has brought his struggles with Brentford back to Germany and has been, unfortunately, quite awful. Everyone from Werder Bremen to Hoffenheim to Mainz have managed to cause problems for the defense.
Even under Hjulmand, Leverkusen are conceding nearly two goals per game. They are sorely missing Xabi Alonso’s strong defense.
Verdict: Leverkusen managed to shock the world by assembling an unbeatable team. Almost more impressive is how quickly they disassembled it. This team won’t win the Bundesliga or come particularly close. Hjulmand is — mostly — making up for the mistake that was hiring Ten Hag, at least.
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Image via bvb.de.
