The Germans have a fair few problems ahead of the World Cup next year. That’s not to say they can’t win it all.
It’s safe to say Julian Nagelsmann doesn’t quite know what to do with this current Germany team. It’s only been two years since he took over for Hansi Flick, yet during this time he’s made some strange tactical decisions. It was Nagelsmann, after all, who bizarrely chose to play Kai Havertz — usually an attacking midfielder or striker — at left-back shortly after getting the job.
Now more than ever, though, it looks like Nagelsmann doesn’t quite know what he can do. He used a back-three against Italy and Portugal in the Nations League quarters and semi-finals respectively, conceding five goals across those two games.
Then against France in the third-place Nations League game, he elected to start two strikers — Niclas Füllkrug and Nick Woltemade — a strategy that backfired as Woltemade was hooked at the half and Füllkrug failed to get involved. Germany lost 2-0.
It’s not as if he has a perfect hand. The national team has recently lost a lot of stalwarts like Manuel Neuer, Thomas Müller, and Toni Kroos, among others. There are many weak spots in this team. However, there’s also no question that he — and Germany — should be doing much better: one win in their last five and ultimately underwhelming performances at home in the Nations League.
Germany has the talent to win the World Cup. But how can they?
The Formation
The weakest spot in Germany’s squad, contrary to public opinion, is not at striker. They actually have quite a few decent options up front — more on that later.
Instead, Germany’s biggest problems lie on the wings. Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sané, and Karim Adeyemi are all capable of brilliance, but lack any consistency and have all dealt with injury issues lately. The likes of Chris Führich and Niklas Beste have come down to Earth after their recent breakthroughs, while options like Kevin Schade and Brajan Gruda have potential but have yet to show they are ready to start at World Cup level.
With the back three against Italy and Portugal, Germany’s midfield — with just two defensive midfielders — was often left exposed, and frankly they also lack the wing-back options that make teams like Bayer Leverkusen or Internazionale so lethal going forward.
Because of this, I suggest a combination of the two formations Nagelsmann used most recently — the 3-4-2-1 and his preferred 4-2-3-1 — to use the 4-3-2-1, otherwise known as the Christmas Tree formation.
In addition to Germany lacking the wing-back (and wingers, and altogether a lack of quality out wide) options as mentioned before, the defense really lacks the pace and awareness for three center-backs.
This formation still requires the full-backs to push forward but doesn’t have quite the same attacking emphasis, with the two attacking midfielders — more detail on this later, but this will obviously be Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz — sitting behind the striker and able to drift out wide and cause problems.
In short, the idea of using this formation is to get Germany’s very technical midfield more involved, which should prevent them from getting overrun and leaving acres of space in the middle of the pitch so often.
It also puts less of a burden on the center-backs, requires less attacking from the full-backs — although still requires more from them than it would in, say, a 4-2-3-1 — and it gives Germany’s two star attacking midfielders more influence and a crucial role. And, ideally, it prevents the striker from being completely isolated.
The Players
Now, a lot can change in a year, of course. A year ago, for instance, very few people outside of Bundesliga fans knew who Nick Woltemade was. Assuming there are no Woltemade-esque breakout seasons, here’s how Germany could line up in that Christmas Tree formation.
Goalkeeper: Noah Atubolu. This might annoy some people, but the fact is that goalkeepers are incredibly reliant on form. So, while Marc-André ter Stegen is better than Atubolu on paper, he’s also not guaranteed as Barcelona’s starter next season, especially since Joan García joined. Atubolu has been Freiburg’s starter for two seasons now and has solidified himself as one of the Bundesliga’s top goalkeepers.
At the same time, Germany needs to have a goalkeeper who is comfortable with the ball at his feet. For over a decade, they had that in Manuel Neuer. The current options — including Nübel and ter Stegen — aren’t nearly as gifted in that regard, but 6’3” Atubolu has the ability and the confidence required from a modern goalkeeper.
Left-back: Maximilian Mittelstädt. What Germany needs here is a complete left-back — someone who causes problems for the defensive but is also solid defensively. Mittelstädt, who recorded eight assists last season and won the most tackles in the Bundesliga last season with VfB Stuttgart, is the perfect fit here.
Center-back (left): Nico Schlotterbeck. Schlotterbeck is a player who has long divided opinions. On his day, he’s one of the best center-backs in Europe. Unfortunately, he’s lacked consistency and struggled for availability since moving to Dortmund. Currently, he’s missing the Club World Cup because of a meniscus injury.
With that being said — Schlotterbeck is an excellent player. He’s a strong defender, and an incredible passer. He’s also Germany’s best left-footed center-back by some margin, which makes him an easy pick for Germany’s LCB role.
Center-back (right): Jonathan Tah. There’s a lot of discussion right now about who Germany’s best center-back options are. Despite his strong form with Bayer Leverkusen and his (deserved) move to Bayern Munich, Tah has yet to silence his doubters with the national team. His form this past international window hasn’t helped.
However, with Antonio Rüdiger turning 33 in March and recently tearing his meniscus, Yann Bisseck and Malick Thiaw struggling for regular minutes in Italy, Tah is currently the best option. He’s surprisingly quick, strong, good in the air, and a smart defender overall — but he needs to play regularly in Munich to earn this spot.
Right-back: Joshua Kimmich. Realistically, this isn’t Kimmich’s best position. However, the combination of Germany’s lack of capable right-backs and strong midfield options make him the only realistic option.
There’s not a lot that has to be said about Kimmich’s abilities. The 30-year-old is a crucial player for club and country, and now has more than 100 appearances for Germany. He’s strong in defense and excellent going forward, and in a role where he needs to push up occasionally and add a threat out wide, he’s the easy choice.
Center-midfield (left): Angelo Stiller. Right now, Nagelsmann needs to figure out how to get more youth in this Germany team. The midfield is the best place to start.
Stiller is one of the most sought after midfielders in the world right now after his past two seasons with Stuttgart. This season, he helped his club win the DFB Pokal, recording four goals and assisting eleven in all competitions.
A technical yet scrappy and defensively strong midfielder, Stiller isn’t a lock in this current Germany team, but he ought to be.
Center defensive midfield: Aleksandar Pavlović. He’s struggled with health issues, but when he’s fit, Pavlović has been one of the best midfielders in Europe. He offers everything an elite midfielder needs — comfortable on the ball, excellent passer, defensively strong, and, when necessary, capable of scoring from out of nowhere (see: his goal vs Leverkusen).
The main concern with this is that Pavlović has never played as a lone CDM. However, with two other midfielders, they all share the defensive and playmaking burdens to an extent. It would be a big ask, but Pavlović has risen to the occasion every time he’s been challenged to date.
Center-midfield (right): Tom Bischof. Despite being only 19, Bischof is already one of the best midfielders in the Bundesliga. He starred for Hoffenheim last season both defensively and in attack, scoring five goals and assisting two as he helped his academy club avoid relegation. Now at Bayern, there is absolutely no reason that Leon Goretzka should start over him.
An extremely well-rounded player, Bischof can play practically anywhere in midfield. While he’s capable of playing in a more attacking role, he’s likely playing as either a #6 or #8 in Munich next season. Another good year would see him fit nicely on the right side of this German midfield.
Attacking midfield (left): Jamal Musiala. The joint-easiest decision in this squad, Musiala and Wirtz are the players who I think would benefit the most from a formation change. If Nagelsmann sticks with the 4-2-3-1, Musiala might end up stuck on the left-wing just because of a sheer lack of options.
The idea with the two CAMs is that the attack would be very fluid and interchangeable. In addition, they can drift out wide to find space, meaning they have to have both the ability to create plays with their passing and also cause problems for the defense with their dribbling and 1v1 ability. In short, the perfect role for Musiala.
Attacking midfield (right): Florian Wirtz. And here’s the other ridiculously easy decision. Wirtz is used to playing in a somewhat similar system with Bayer Leverkusen, either with another attacking midfielder and a striker, or as the lone attacking midfielder behind a striker. Under Nagelsmann, he’s been put all over the place, including on the right.
It’s not yet clear where Wirtz will play after his imminent Liverpool move, but realistically it won’t change much. He’s locked in as a starter no matter what, and he and Musiala would nicely compliment each other as dual CAMs.
Honorable mention: Brajan Gruda won’t start over either of these players, but if he can continue to develop at Brighton, he can potentially be a devastating option off the bench in place of Wirtz.
Striker: Kai Havertz. Hear me out. I don’t actually think that Kai Havertz is Germany’s best striker at the moment. I don’t even think he’s top three — on form, Tim Kleindienst, Nick Woltemade, and Deniz Undav have been well clear. But for this role, he’s the perfect fit.
The main reason he works best here: he used to be an attacking midfielder himself, and often plays a more deep-lying role with Arsenal. He’s capable of dropping further back to allow Musiala and Wirtz to advance further upfield or get wide, or of temporarily swapping positions with either.
That means at any given time, Germany’s formation with Havertz could resemble a 4-3-2-1, 4-3-1-2, or 4-3-3 — unpredictable for defenses and easily adjustable if the attack is struggling to get involved. Woltemade or Kleindienst wouldn’t be able to offer this sort of fluidity that would make this attack so deadly, at least not in the same way.
Havertz is more often than not incredibly frustrating to watch, especially with Germany. At the Euros, he scored two goals from 4.12 xG — both penalties. But he’s also capable of brilliance from time to time — you don’t play for Bayer Leverkusen, Chelsea, and Arsenal by accident, let alone score a Champions League-winning goal.
And if he’s not performing, then there’s the 6’6” ultimate super-sub in Nick Woltemade waiting on the bench. Not a bad exit strategy.
Final Thoughts
It might not be the sexiest team in the world. Outside of Germany, many of these players — Atubolu, Mittelstädt, Bischof — are relatively unknown quantities. Some of them, like Tah or Havertz, don’t have the best reputation. But they don’t need to.
When Germany won the World Cup in 2014, they were not a flawless team. Benedikt Höwedes was certainly not considered the best left-back in the world. Miroslav Klose only actually started three games at striker that tournament, scoring two goals.
That team had two things going for it in a big way. First, a collection of some of the best passers in the world. Mesut Özil, Thomas Müller, Toni Kroos, and Bastian Schweinsteiger all in the same team. Enough said. Stiller, Pavlović, Bischof, Musiala, Wirtz, and Kimmich might not be on that same level, but what Germany lacks in physically talented players they can more than make up for with technique.
Second, they worked well as a collective. It’s really hard to find an individual star for Germany from that tournament. Against Brazil, there were five different goal-scorers. Throughout the tournament, eight different players scored, while ten had goal contributions and 18 played.
This isn’t as strong as Germany’s World Cup winning teams of the past. However, Germany won’t suddenly have some of the best wingers on the planet or two unstoppable wing-backs. They have to make the best with what they have.
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Image via DFB.de.
